Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Why I support Obama

There is a very specific reason I support Barack Obama. The reason is simple, his stance on Iran. He is the only mainstream candidate that appears to me to have a genuine understanding of just how complicated the Iranian situation is. He also appears to have a grasp of the horrific consequences of mishandling it.

Option one with Iran is to do nothing and take them at their word that they do not intend to develop nuclear weapons. This is unacceptable as it is simply a security risk that Israel is rightly unwilling to tolerate. The possibility that six or eight or ten guys in the Iranian regime could do a deal (possibly without the approval of the leadership)with the same number of guys in Hezbollah is intolerable. If that were to happen the Jewish people would face the realistic prospect of a second holocaust within living memory.

Option two is to attack Iran's nuclear sites. This again is extremely imperfect not most of all because it probably won't work. If either the US or Israel had the capability of accurately and successfully attacking Iran's numerous suspected nuclear sites then it would have happened by now. In any case the consequences of such reckless action are almost unthinkable. Iran's ability to retaliate is greater than most appreciate. They have a wide reaching spy network that could retaliate against American troops in dramatic fashion. We could see truck bombs like the one that killed 242 US marines in Beirut in 1983 happen all over the world. This could happen in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, all over Iraq and Afghanistan, maybe even South Korea, Germany the United States itself and God knows where else. The US might not after so many attacks be able to withstand the pressure to invade. And in that case let me just say that Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan all under US occupation would be completely unsustainable and would inflict such a disastrous defeat on America that it might never recover.

Option three, talk to Iran. The US has not had diplomatic relations with Iran since 1979. I have stated many times on Gubu Word that I believe Iran is one of the most misunderstood nations in the world. They are ultimately rational actors in International affairs and they like all of us conduct their foreign policy based on national interest. I personally believe that their national interest of respect and independence is what drives their conduct, not revolutionary or religious ideals. If a compromise can be achieved by reaching out to them is it not worth it given the improbability of success with options one and two. It hasn't even been tried yet. But Barack Obama is willing to give it a go and that is why Gubu World supports him.

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