Friday, July 11, 2008

Renewed talk of action on Iran

Iranian's conduct medium and long range missile test on Wednesday

Is it on again ? Iran's missile test on Wednesday has led to speculation that an Israeli air strike on its alleged nuclear sites is imminent.

Lets break it down.

Reasons it might happen
1. Israelis are absolutely petrified that a nuclear Iran would be in a position to carry out what it has threatened (albeit vaguely)to do. That is annihilate the Jewish state. The entire basis for the establishment of the Jewish state was for Jews around the world to band together under one flag in order to protect themselves. Israel's motto is "Never Again", meaning never again will we allow another Holocaust. It is impossible to underestimate the determination that exists in Israel to make sure of this.

2. Iran's relationship with Hezbollah. Iran and Hezbollah are pretty much the same organisation. If Iran were a to become a nuclear power they would not have to launch a nuclear missile at Israel to kill six million Jews. They could transfer it to Hezbollah. Israel simply can not be expected to tolerate, what would in effect be a nuclear Hezbollah.

3. Americans do not want Iran to dominate dominate the Persian Gulf. Over the years Iran has attempted to influence the politics of the gulf nations that have Shia minorities. These countries, Qatar, Bahrain ect are American allies. An Israeli air strike would take them down a peg or two.

4. The international community are afraid that a nuclear Iran might trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia the most likely to follow.

Reasons it might not happen.
1. Iran have claimed they will respond the same way to an Israeli air strike as they would a US strike as they claim the two are acting as one on this matter. For this reason the Americans will want to restrain Israel.

2. Iran has the capability to completely undo the progress the Americans have made in Iraq since the surge. They would do this by launching a massive wave of attacks against us troops and by sponsoring uprisings by the Shia.

3. We could also see massive attacks against US in Afghanistan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, perhaps even Germany Italy and anywhere else US troops are stationed.

4. Iran is the only country on earth whose armed forces will openly operate in an unconventional fashion. This means that suicide tactics that are normally associate with terrorist groups will be launched be the Iranian military. They will use these tactics to attack American interests all over the world.

5. They may attempt to blockade the Straits of Hormuz which all shipping entering or exiting the Persian Gulf must pass through. This will not succeed but it will lead to naval warfare throughout the Gulf (of which 40% of the world's oil must pass through)driving oil prices possibly as high as 300$ a barrel. This could drag the world economy into a global recession 1929 style.

Lets hope sanity prevails.

No comments: