Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Is a Century of Warfare Ahead

Any of my regular readers here at GUBU know that my motivation for beginning this blog was to make some sense of the geopolitical madness that has characterised the 21st century so far. I have feared for some time now that global events are coming together in a way that are leading us down the path of global depression and war. Basically conditions exist today, not unlike the 1930's that could lead us into a massive global conflict probably before the midpoint of the century. I believed until recently that the only condition not yet here that would confirm my hypothesis was some sort of global financial meltdown. With global stock markets taking a pounding and banks going under all over the world I think its safe to say to say that that moment is almost upon us.

Global stocks plummeted yesterday after the US House of Representatives failed to pass the $700 billion dollar bailout bill

My one single biggest political conviction is that the current international political system as it exists today is unsustainable and that it might very well break down just as it did in 1939. This I fear could lead us into a century even more disastrous than the last. Allow me to elaborate on the conditions with which I speak of and the International Political system that is supposed to manage it. I am referring to conditions such as: the population explosion of the southern hemisphere combined with the global food and energy shortage, the rise of India and China, a militant Russia, A Muslim world wrestling with modernity and Global Warming. It has become increasingly obvious to me that the International Political System and its institutions are incapable of dealing with these issues. International Organisations such as the UN while sound in concept are just not up to the challenge and as we have seen this week the global financial institutions are a total mess. Since the UN is unable to handle global crisis it is left to nation states who unfortunately still operate on a primitive 2oth century view of national interest. They are almost prevented by nature from approaching a problem from a global perspective. As a student of International Relations I became aware that the nature of relations between states was and continues to be based on national self interest. This is still the case at a time when international cooperation has never been more urgent.

An all too common image of extreme poverty in the impoverished south

I do not know what the solution is is but I do know the direction we must go in. There has to be more International law regarding the conduct of international relations. The national interest of one country cannot come at the blatant expense of another. Perhaps a single energy market could do for the world what the single market has done for Europe. And there simply has to be much more regulation (not necessarily in the form of barriers) of the global economy to prevent the sort of madness that we have seen in recent days. The stark reality is that this should be a wonderful time for humanity but its slowly spiraling into catastrophic one. The beginning of the millennium was a time of such optimism, where did it all go wrong ? I do not know but when you consider all the above it becomes increasingly easier to imagine a 21st century even more bloodier than the last.

Last time the International Political System broke down these guys said they knew what to do

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