Saturday, January 3, 2009

Gaza Update

It appears I was premature in my earlier post about ground troops having already entered Gaza however I stand by my claim that special forces may have launched sneak attacks into strip. The question still remains, what is the next phase in operation Cast Lead. The fact that all foreign citizens have been allowed to leave Gaza by the Israelis would suggest that an invasion is coming. This of course will bring the war down to a level that Hamas will feel they can fight on and inflict heavy casualties on the IDF. So far the death count stand at 4 Israelis and 465 Palestinians. In a messy urban conflict Israel could see its casualties rise sharply so the Israeli leadership will be very aware of this particularly given that there is an election a mere three weeks away. Having said that it is becoming increasingly clear that Hamas are in no way as organised as Hezbollah were in July 2006 so an all out ground offensive to destroy the organisation must be tempting for Olmert Livni and co.

Palestinians carry the bodies of senior Hamas leader Nizar Rayyan and his family, who were killed in an Israeli air strike on their home on Thursday

The real fear now facing Israelis is that Hamas will retaliate with a weapon that is emphatically more effective that their primitive Kasam rockets. Suicide bomings have been promised in the wake of the assassination of Hamas commander Nizar Rayyan and his family. If so this conflict could be facing into an even nastier stage and believe me that is a very real prospect.


Anonymous said...

Its hard to know who is right here. The Isreali administration could not sit by, while rockets were being launched into their territory all too frequently. But the force in which they've responded, seems much too heavy handed. A simple mathematic calculation bares this out. The ratio 4:465 tells volumes. It is simply not fair, but then, nothing is fair in love nor war. Eoghan.

Ted Leddy said...

Thanks for your comment Eoghan

Everybody feels the same. How can a conflict with such a death ratio be in anyway fair. The Israelis however would say the following.

We have the best air defence system in the world. 250,000 Israelis in southern Israel have to run to an air raid shelters on average four times a day. Its hardly our fault that Hamas have been unsuccessful in their attempts to kill us. We desperately try to protect our citizens. Thats why we
have so few casualties. Hamas on the other side use their people as shields and then try exploit their casualties for propaganda. When we (Israelis) kill civillians we mourn and try to figure out how not to repeat it. When Hamas kill innocent Israelis they celebrate.

That is the standard Israeli line. There is logic to it. But having said that I dont think what the Israelis are doing will make them safer because as we speak Hamas are thinking of ways to hit back and it is likely that 2009 will be a year of suicide bombings just as 2001/02 was after the Israeli invasion of the west bank.