Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Livni Wins

Damn I'm good. As I have been saying on Gubu World for months now, the liberal wave that has swept America is also effecting Israel. I knew that the notoriously inaccurate Israeli polls had got it wrong when they declared that the Israeli electorate had taken a sharp swing to the right. While they are not quite sitting around the campfire singing "give peace a Chance" just yet, the strong Kadima performance is a definite indicator that the Israeli people favor negotiations with the Palestinians and ultimately a two state solution. If people would just listen to me I tell ya we'd have had peace donkeys years ago.

This result is good news for the Obama, Mitchell, Tony Blair peace plan as it is for all the sane people out there that understand that only a secure Israel and a viable Palestinian state is the way forward. Obama's pledge to put his weight behind the peace process in his first year in office clearly influenced the Israeli electorate here. They obviously did not want to see such an opportunity wasted by voting in a man who will never remove Jewish settlements from the west bank nor who is vehemently opposed to a Palestinian state. And with the Kadima party restoring its image during the recent Gaza war as a party that can keep Israel safe the people have decided to give them a chance.

However things are not quite sown up yet. The situation is as follows. Livni's Kadima party topped the poll by winning 28 of 120 seats in parliament. Netenyahu's Likud came second with 27. Throughout Israeli history the leader of the party that topped the poll has always become Prime Minister. The only way this will not happen now is if Netenyahu manages to form an unlikely coalition between Likud and labour and the Israel is our home party (remember the mad Moldovan bouncer) at the expense of Kadima. In any event the next government will have to be a coalition so we can expect to see some frantic haggling going on between now and the 42 days they have to form a government but it must be said its looking good for Livni.

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