Monday, February 6, 2012
Iranian Nukes, the no spin truth !
I have been blogging about this since I started Gubu World in 2008 but it really does seem that 2012 will finally be the year that the Iranian threat comes to a head. I find that the debate surrounding the Iranian threat to be full of platitudes and the commentary to be fairly lazy. So I have decided to lay it out as I see it in a clear and no spin way.
1. During the Second World War the Nazis invaded all of Europe, rounded up every Jew they could find in occupied territory and exterminated them in the most efficient and cost effective way, which turned out to be the gas chamber. Six million Jewish people were murdered this way.
2. Every Jewish family today has a story of a relative from the 1930s who used to say that you can't take this Hitler guy serious. It was believed, either through naivety or simply by underestimating humanities potential for cruelty that the Nazis either did not really mean to carry out their threat or would never obtain the capability.
3. After the Holocaust the Zionist theory of a Jewish homeland to protect the Jewish people gained enormous merit and the Jewish state was established in 1948 with one primary objection, to Never Again allow the Jewish people to be led to the slaughter by extreme bigotry and anti semitism.
4. The Islamic regime in Iran is fiercely anti Israeli. It has declared Israel to be an illegitimate state and that it should be wiped of the face of the map. The Iranian government appear to be on the verge of obtaining a nuclear weapons capacity. This would give them the capability to carry out that threat either by missile launch or via a proxy terrorist group that they sponsor. This is an unacceptable security risk for Israel.
5. Those opposed to military action against Iran seem to argue that the US and Israel are war mongering and that the threat is not that severe. They often argue that the threat to "wipe Israel off the map" actually got lost in translation somewhere between English and Farsi. This may be true but no reasonable person can expect Israel to rely on just hoping that Iran does not intend to carry out their threat. Given point Number 2 there is a strong belief within Israel that the government should take the Iranians at their word when they threaten to obliterate the Jewish homeland.
Below is a provocative and disturbing video that was released last week in Israel which depict the consequences of a nuclear attack on the Jewish state.
I want to make a few crucial points. We simply cannot expect Israel to rely on the good will of the International Community to protect it. We must consider the psychological legacy of the holocaust to understand why this is so. The last time the Jewish people relied on the world for protection six million of their civilians were herded into gas chambers. Back then the Jewish people didn't have a state to resist mass slaughter. Now they do and now they will defend themselves.
It may seem like it but this is not a post arguing in favour of military action against Iran. I get angry when I see Republicans mocking Obama for not having the metal to do it as if that was the only issue. If the Iranian nuclear programme could be destroyed by military action it would have happened long ago. And even in the event of a successful strike we would no doubt see massive retaliation in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf as well as via a host of proxies which would wreak havoc on the world and the global economy. This is why I suspect both Israel and the US are working on a third option. The Israeli version of this appears to be an attempt to wipe out the team of nuclear scientists working on the Iranian programme. The Americans I suspect favour some sort of secret approach to Tehran guaranteeing an end to the nuclear programme in exchange for economic incentives. Some call this appeasement, but if successful it would represent the biggest victory in US Foreign Policy since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Whatever approach is taken I would appeal to all sensible people to be on Israel's side on this issue. Be on the right side of history with it. Nobody wants to see another war and hopefully it won't come to that but ask yourself, would you prefer another Mid East war or another holocaust against the Jewish people on the conscience of the western world.