Thursday, November 15, 2012

Bad time for a War




This shocking footage was released by the IDF today. It is footage of the assassination of Ahmed Jabri, the head of Hamas' military wing who was killed in yesterdays attack. The situation may now lead to a full scale war between the IDF and Hamas controlled Gaza similar to that which we saw in 2008. I am not surprised that Israel has assassinated this man. But I am surprised at the timing. The Middle East is a very different place today than 2008. Egypt since the fall of Hosni Mubarak has been controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood. This completely changes the game. If this war does escalate into a violent confrontation in which hundreds of Palestinians are killed it may be the trigger that finally pushes Egypt firmly into the extremist camp in which case the 1979 pace agreement between the two nations will come to an end. In addition the situation in Syria is deteriorating to the extent that the Syrian army and the IDF actually exchanged fire last week. Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has been hanging on by his fingernails over the last year. A war between Israel and Palestine might be the only thing that could save him. And in the north Hezbollah is still capable of launching a large scale attack just as it did in 2006. The prospect of Israel facing a three front war in the near future appears to me to be a very real possibility. As for the war itself I believe as I always have that Israel is entitled to defend itself, aggressively if necessary. But I hope it doesn't come to that both for the innocent Palestinians who will die and for the Israelis who as I explained above are in a precarious position. Lets hope things calm down over the next few days.

6 comments:

Cranky Notions said...

I always thought this would remain small-scale. You can tell by the small number of very specific strikes since the day before yesterday. If there was going to be a big incursion there would be a significant bombing campaign first, not taking out a handful of individual figures and a few dozen weapons sites. Otherwise, the enemy are left with a strong chance to prepare.

Ted Leddy said...

John

I had the same thought, but some sources are saying that Gaza was hit by air strikes yesterday at a rate of one every five minutes. And with the troops massing, and Israels record of finishing what it starts I am beginning to fear that this won't be over soon.

Paul said...

What is needed is for the Nazi Hamas to be torn out by the roots. A Fallujah style operation if necessary, I'm afraid I can see no alternative.

Ted Leddy said...

Paul

I don't think now is the time for a Fallujah type assault on Gaza. Firstly, the citizens of Fallujah were able to flee the city. That is not an option for the people of Gaza so civilian casualties would be enormous. Secondly, as I alluded to in the post, Egypt and Syria are going through phases of extraordinary instability and change. There have also been violent protests in Jordan this week. An all out assault on Gaza would be a blow to the pro western elements in all these countires. It would be a much greater disaster for Israel if these countries were to fall under the control of movements that are committed to war with it. As the title of my post implies, I think it is the wrong time for a war.

sammish said...

Paul,
Yes Fallujah style operation is good, but remember most of the terrorists in Fallujah fled (or were allowed to leave because of the truce sponsored by Saudi Arabia). Most of the fighters were Saudi and from prominent Saudi families. A truce was allowed and the people just fled (allowed to leave) at night. Next morning, the news that it was liberated was a joke (at least to me). The true story broke a month ago and Anderson Cooper of CNN reported the incident. In Gaza, there will be no interventions. Saudis do not give a hoot for Gazians.

This cat and mouse sort of war is not going to work for Israel. Israel needs to take care of business once and for all by targeting all of Hamas infrastructure and personel all of it.. Unless their change their constitution that stipulate the destruction of Israel, I do not see why Israel bothers with cease fire and truce and peace talks and the whole bull.

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